Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2018 Broadening demographic horizons
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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400 https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at |
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DATUM, UNTERSCHRIFT / DATE, SIGNATURE
BANK AUSTRIA CREDITANSTALT, WIEN (IBAN AT04 1100 0006 2280 0100, BIC BKAUATWW), DEUTSCHE BANK MÜNCHEN (IBAN DE16 7007 0024 0238 8270 00, BIC DEUTDEDBMUC)
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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2018 Broadening demographic horizons
ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition ISSN 1728-5305 Online Edition ISBN 978-3-7001-8364-8 Print Edition ISBN 978-3-7001-8436-2 Online Edition
Frans Willekens
S. 199 - 218 doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2018s199 Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2018s199
Abstract: International migration is difficult to predict because of uncertainties. The identification of sources of uncertainty and the measurement and modelling of uncertainties are necessary, but they are not sufficient. Uncertainties should be reduced by accounting for the heterogeneity of migrants, the reasons why some people leave their country while most stay, and the causal mechanisms that lead to those choices. International migration takes place within a context of globalisation, technological change, growing interest in migration governance, and the emergence of a migration industry. Young people are more likely than older people to respond to these contextual factors, as they are better informed, have greater self-efficacy, and are more likely to have a social network abroad than previous generations. My aim in this paper is to present ideas for the causal forecasting of migration. Wolfgang Lutz’s demographic theory of socioeconomic change is a good point of departure. The cohort-replacement mechanism, which is central to Lutz’s theory, is extended to account for cohort heterogeneity, life-cycle transitions, and learning. I close the paper by concluding that the time has come to explore the causal mechanisms underlying migration, and to make optimal use of that knowledge to improve migration forecasts. Published Online: 2018/11/21 12:30:59 Object Identifier: 0xc1aa5572 0x003a1295 Rights: .
Introduction
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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400 https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at |