Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 Fertility across time and space
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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400 https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at |
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DATUM, UNTERSCHRIFT / DATE, SIGNATURE
BANK AUSTRIA CREDITANSTALT, WIEN (IBAN AT04 1100 0006 2280 0100, BIC BKAUATWW), DEUTSCHE BANK MÜNCHEN (IBAN DE16 7007 0024 0238 8270 00, BIC DEUTDEDBMUC)
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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 Fertility across time and space
ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition ISSN 1728-5305 Online Edition ISBN 978-3-7001-8702-8 Print Edition ISBN 978-3-7001-8773-8 Online Edition
doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2020
Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020 2020 292 Seiten, 24x17cm, broschiert € 60,–
Michaela Potančoková,
Guillaume Marois
S. 141 - 166 Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2020.res02
Abstract: Building on the well-established knowledge on fertility differentials by education and nativity/migration status, we employ microsimulation modelling to demonstrate the effect of accounting for such differences in population projections. We consider fertility differentials by educational attainment, enrolment in full-time education, region of birth, age at immigration, and duration of stay in the host country, which we introduce step-wise into the microsimulation model for the EU28. Results on projected TFRs and births by 2060 illustrate the importance of accounting for several sources of population heterogeneity. In the context of future educational expansion, modelling education differentials for students and for women with completed education is needed to capture the postponement effect of education on childbearing. Future migration assumptions that include migrant fertility differentials lead to widely varying projected numbers of future births. At fixed fertility differentials and a fixed composition of immigrant flows, the net effect of immigrant fertility on the overall TFR in the EU28 is projected to increase from the estimated 0.12 in 2015–2019 to 0.17 in 2055–59 in the scenario with baseline migration, and to 0.25 in 2055–59 in the scenario with doubled migration. Keywords: population projection; microsimulation; fertility; education; immigrants Published Online: 2020/08/04 09:45:33 Object Identifier: 0xc1aa5576 0x003bbdcd Rights: .
Introduction: the relevance of studying fertility across time and space
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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400 https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at |