Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2022 Demographic aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic and its consequences
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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400 https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at |
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DATUM, UNTERSCHRIFT / DATE, SIGNATURE
BANK AUSTRIA CREDITANSTALT, WIEN (IBAN AT04 1100 0006 2280 0100, BIC BKAUATWW), DEUTSCHE BANK MÜNCHEN (IBAN DE16 7007 0024 0238 8270 00, BIC DEUTDEDBMUC)
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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2022 Demographic aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic and its consequences
ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition ISSN 1728-5305 Online Edition ISBN 978-3-7001-8882-7 Print Edition ISBN 978-3-7001-9003-5 Online Edition Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2022
2022, ONLINE FIRST 554 Seiten, License: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License: CC BY 4.0 24x17cm, broschiert
Luis Rosero-Bixby,
Tim Miller
S. 143 - 166 Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.3
Abstract: Supplementary Files Data Set (Excel) Data Set (DTA) The reproduction number R is a key indicator used to monitor the dynamics of Covid-19 and to assess the effects of infection control strategies that frequently have high social and economic costs. Despite having an analog in demography’s “net reproduction rate” that has been routinely computed for a century, demographers may not be familiar with the concept and measurement of R in the context of Covid-19. This article is intended to be a primer for understanding and estimating R in demography. We show that R can be estimated as a ratio between the numbers of new cases today divided by the weighted average of cases in previous days. We present two alternative derivations for these weights based on how risks have changed over time: constant vs. exponential decay. We then provide estimates of these weights, and demonstrate their use in calculating R to trace the course of the first pandemic year in 53 countries. Keywords: Covid-19; reproductive number R; demographic methods; net reproduction rate Published Online: 2021/12/15 06:05:00 Object Identifier: 0xc1aa5576 0x003d1321 Rights:https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Introduction
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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400 https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at |