Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2022 Demographic aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic and its consequences
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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400 https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at |
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DATUM, UNTERSCHRIFT / DATE, SIGNATURE
BANK AUSTRIA CREDITANSTALT, WIEN (IBAN AT04 1100 0006 2280 0100, BIC BKAUATWW), DEUTSCHE BANK MÜNCHEN (IBAN DE16 7007 0024 0238 8270 00, BIC DEUTDEDBMUC)
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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2022 Demographic aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic and its consequences
ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition ISSN 1728-5305 Online Edition ISBN 978-3-7001-8882-7 Print Edition ISBN 978-3-7001-9003-5 Online Edition Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2022
2022, ONLINE FIRST 554 Seiten, License: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License: CC BY 4.0 24x17cm, broschiert
Raffaele Guetto,
Giacomo Bazzani,
Daniele Vignoli
S. 223 - 260 Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.6
Abstract: The sociological and demographic literatures have widely demonstrated that fertility decisions are shaped by individuals’ previous life experiences and socioeconomic status – i.e., the “shadow of the past.” However, rising uncertainty in contemporary societies necessitates an analytical framework that acknowledges the influence of the future in the fertility decision-making process. Based on the Narrative Framework, we argue that personal narratives of the future, and their constitutive elements of expectations and imaginaries – i.e., the “shadow of the future” – represent crucial drivers of fertility intentions under conditions of uncertainty. Our arguments are tested empirically by exploiting the exogenous uncertainty shock provided by the COVID-19 pandemic, and unique data we collected during the Italian lockdown. Results suggest that, because of COVID-induced uncertainty, subjective perceptions and personal narratives of the future – also shaped by media “shared narratives” – gained the upper hand over the shadow of the past in influencing fertility intentions. In addition, we provide evidence of a causal impact of shared narratives of the future on fertility intentions through an online experiment simulating a “real” exposure of the respondents to a new media narrative on the expected length of the emergency. Keywords: uncertainty; fertility; COVID-19; narratives Published Online: 2022/02/15 11:30:13 Object Identifier: 0xc1aa5576 0x003d3ca9 Rights:https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Introduction
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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400 https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at |