Like high cholesterol, population decline is a problem, but not in the way you might think...

Wendy Sigle

doi:doi:10.1553/p-jm9f-3jdm

Vienna Institute of Demography (Ed.)

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2023

The causes and consequences of depopulation

ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-9258-9
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-9259-6
Online Edition

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2023
2023, ONLINE FIRST
Open access

Debate

Like high cholesterol, population decline is a problem, but not in the way you might think...
Wendy Sigle

The human eco-predicament: Overshoot and the population conundrum
William E. Rees

Population decline will likely become a global trend and benefit long-term human wellbeing
Wolfgang Lutz

Review Articles

Revisiting the impact of urban shrinkage on residential segregation in European cities
David Huntington

Research Articles

Immigration and the prospects for long-run population decreases in European countries
Nick Parr

Is Spanish depopulation irreversible? Recent demographic and spatial changes in small municipalities
Fernando Gil-Alonso - Jordi Bayona-i-Carrasco - Isabel Pujadas-Rúbies

The triple burden of depopulation in Ukraine: examining perceptions of population decline
Brienna Perelli-Harris - Yuliya Hilevych

Neighbourhood effects and determinants of population changes in Italy: A spatial perspective
Federico Benassi - Annalisa Busetta - Gerardo Gallo - Manuela Stranges

How much would reduced emigration mitigate ageing in Norway?
Marianne Tønnessen - Astri Syse

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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2023
ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-9258-9
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-9259-6
Online Edition

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doi:10.1553/p-jm9f-3jdm

Online Edition

Vienna Institute of Demography (Ed.)

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2023

The causes and consequences of depopulation

ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-9258-9
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-9259-6
Online Edition

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2023
2023, ONLINE FIRST
Open access

Wendy Sigle

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8450-960X

Like high cholesterol, population decline is a problem, but not in the way you might think... ()

doi:10.1553/p-jm9f-3jdm

Open access

Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften

Abstract:
The prospect of population decline in Europe is commonly understood to be an important policy problem. Discussions and research typically focus on the level and the trend of demographic indicators. Can policies be designed which, by targeting the constrained optimisation of rational individuals, cause the indicators to change in the right direction? In this intervention, I argue that like a surrogate marker in medicine, a demographic indicator is not a meaningful endpoint: something that is a direct measure of health or, analogously, a healthy society. Treating population indicators as meaningful endpoints can, as history has shown, lead to great harm. In my view, it is this misconception that makes population decline a truly serious and terrifying problem. So yes, population decline is a problem, but not in the way you, or the people who pose this sort of question, might think.

Keywords: population decline; fertility; institutions; surrogate marker
Published Online: 2022/10/19 11:05:09
Object Identifier: 0xc1aa5576 0x003dc065
Rights:https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
Austrian Academy of Sciences Press

A-1011 Wien, Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2
Tel. +43-1-515 81/DW 3420, Fax +43-1-515 81/DW 3400
https://verlag.oeaw.ac.at, e-mail: verlag@oeaw.ac.at