• Vienna Institute of Demography (Ed.)

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2018

Broadening demographic horizons

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Introduction

Broadening Demographic Horizons: Demographic Studies Beyond Age and Gender
Alexia Prskawetz, Warren Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov

Demographic Debate

Are there principles of demography? A search for unifying (and hegemonic) Themes
William P. Butz

Can Taylor's law of fluctuation scaling and its relatives help select more plausible multi-regional population forecasts?
Joel E. Cohen, Helge Brunborg, Meng Xu

Probabilistic demographic forecasts
Nico Keilman

Education and demography: a review of world population and human capital in the 21st century
Philip Rees

Research Articles

Population dynamics and human capital in Muslim countries
Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi, Gavin W. Jones

Survival inequalities and redistribution in the Italian pension system
Graziella Caselli, Rosa Maria Lipsi

Does education matter? – economic dependency ratios by education
Alexia Prskawetz, Bernhard Hammer

Multistate projections of Australia’s Indigenous population: interacting area group and identification status change
James Raymer, Yanlin Shi, James O'Donnell, Nicholas Biddle

The end of population ageing in the more developed world
Warren Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov, Patrick Gerland

From intentions to births: paths of realization in a multi-dimensional life course
Maria Rita Testa, Francesco Rampazzo

Towards causal forecasting of international migration
Frans Willekens

Data and Trends

Summary of Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries
Nicholas Gailey, Wolfgang Lutz

"Express transitioning" as a special case of the demographic transition
Marc Luy, Bernhard Köppen

Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2018
ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8364-8
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8436-2
Online Edition



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Probabilistic demographic forecasts

    Nico Keilman

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2018, pp. 025-035, 2018/12/20

Broadening demographic horizons

doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s025


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doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2018s025

Abstract

I explore the application of probabilistic methods in demographic forecasting. Deterministic forecasts fail to account for the inherent uncertainty in demographic processes, which probabilistic approaches aim to address. By incorporating probabilities, these forecasts can provide a range of possible future outcomes rather than one single (or a few) predicted values, thereby offering a more comprehensive view of potential demographic changes. I discuss the advantages of probabilistic forecasting, such as its ability to quantify uncertainty and provide clearer communication of risks to policymakers and stakeholders. The paper reviews various probabilistic methods, including Bayesian models and expert elicitation, and illustrates their use in forecasting population size, age structure, and other demographic variables. Wolfgang Lutz and colleagues have made major contributions to the field of probabilistic population forecasting. Their pioneering work in the 1990s was important because it showed that probabilistic population forecasting is feasible. The deterministic world population forecasts of the Wittgenstein Centre, and the IPCC forecasts based on SSP scenarios will be much more useful and relevant for the user once they are formulated in probabilistic terms. Also, the link between education on the one hand and fertility, mortality, and migration on the other, should be modelled as a two-way causal process. The paper concludes that while probabilistic forecasts are more complex to produce and interpret, they significantly enhance the understanding of demographic trends and uncertainties. This is especially critical in contexts where demographic changes can have substantial social and economic impacts.

Keywords: Probabilistic forecast; Population projections; Two-way causality; Fertility impact on education; IPCC population forecast