• Vienna Institute of Demography (Ed.)

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020

Fertility across time and space

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Introduction: the relevance of studying fertility across time and space
Tomáš Sobotka

Debate

International political economy and future fertility trends
Alícia Adserà

Moving out the parental home and partnership formation as social determinants of low fertility
Albert Esteve, Diederik Boertien, Ryohei Mogi and Mariona Lozano

“Catching up with ‘compressed modernity”’ - How the values of Millennials and Gen-Z’ers could reframe gender equity and demographic systems
Stuart Gietel-Basten



Future fertility trends are shaped at the intersection of gender and social stratification
Trude Lappegård



The wish for a child
Anna Rotkirch

Fertility will be determined by the changing ideal family size and the empowerment to reach these targets
Wolfgang Lutz

Marriage will (continue to) be the key to the future of fertility in Japan and East Asia
Setsuya Fukuda

Review Article

Ultra-low fertility in East Asia: Confucianism and its discontents
Yen-hsin Alice Cheng

Research Articles

Laggards in the global fertility transition
David Shapiro, Andrew Hinde

Projecting future births with fertility differentials reflecting women’s educational and migrant characteristics
Michaela Potančoková, Guillaume Marois

Decomposing changes in first birth trends: Quantum, timing, or variance
Ryohei Mogi, Michael Dominic del Mundo

What factors support the early age patterns of fertility in a developing country: the case of Kyrgyzstan
Konstantin Kazenin, Vladimir Kozlov

Marital fertility decline and child mortality in the Sardinian longevity Blue Zone
Michel Poulain, Dany Chambre, Pino Ledda, Anne Herm

Future orientation and fertility: cross-national evidence using Google search
Nicolò Cavalli

Selected Wittgenstein Centre databases on fertility across time and space
Kryštof Zeman, Tomáš Sobotka

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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020
ISSN 1728-4414
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ISSN 1728-5305
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ISBN 978-3-7001-8702-8
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ISBN 978-3-7001-8773-8
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Future orientation and fertility: cross-national evidence using Google search

    Nicolo Cavalli

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020, pp. 237-263, 2020/12/29

Fertility across time and space

doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.res06


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doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2020.res06

Abstract

Using digital traces to investigate demographic behaviours, I leverage in this paper aggregated web search data to develop a Future Orientation Index for 200 countries and territories across the world. This index is expressed as the ratio of Googlesearch volumes for ‘next year’ (e.g., 2021) to search volumes for ‘current year’ (e.g.,2020), adjusted for country-level internet penetration rates. I show that countries with lower levels of future orientation also have higher levels of fertility. Fertility rates decrease quickly as future orientation levels increase; but at the highest levels of future orientation, this correlation flattens out. Theoretically, I reconstruct the role that varying degrees of future orientation might play in fertility decisions by incorporating advances in behavioural economics into a traditional quantity-quality framework a la Becker.

Keywords: Future orientation; Total fertility rate; Hyperbolic discounting; Quantity-quality trade-off; Digital trace data; Google trends; Digital demography

Published Online: 2020/12/29 14:00:00

Object Identifier: 0xc1aa5572 0x003fa879

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Rights: © The Author(s), Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna 2024 This article/book is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) that allows the sharing, use and adaptation in any medium, provided that the user gives appropriate credit, provides a link to the license, and indicates if changes were made.