• Vienna Institute of Demography (Ed.)

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020

Fertility across time and space

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Introduction: the relevance of studying fertility across time and space
Tomáš Sobotka

Debate

International political economy and future fertility trends
Alícia Adserà

Moving out the parental home and partnership formation as social determinants of low fertility
Albert Esteve, Diederik Boertien, Ryohei Mogi and Mariona Lozano

“Catching up with ‘compressed modernity”’ - How the values of Millennials and Gen-Z’ers could reframe gender equity and demographic systems
Stuart Gietel-Basten



Future fertility trends are shaped at the intersection of gender and social stratification
Trude Lappegård



The wish for a child
Anna Rotkirch

Fertility will be determined by the changing ideal family size and the empowerment to reach these targets
Wolfgang Lutz

Marriage will (continue to) be the key to the future of fertility in Japan and East Asia
Setsuya Fukuda

Review Article

Ultra-low fertility in East Asia: Confucianism and its discontents
Yen-hsin Alice Cheng

Research Articles

Laggards in the global fertility transition
David Shapiro, Andrew Hinde

Projecting future births with fertility differentials reflecting women’s educational and migrant characteristics
Michaela Potančoková, Guillaume Marois

Decomposing changes in first birth trends: Quantum, timing, or variance
Ryohei Mogi, Michael Dominic del Mundo

What factors support the early age patterns of fertility in a developing country: the case of Kyrgyzstan
Konstantin Kazenin, Vladimir Kozlov

Marital fertility decline and child mortality in the Sardinian longevity Blue Zone
Michel Poulain, Dany Chambre, Pino Ledda, Anne Herm

Future orientation and fertility: cross-national evidence using Google search
Nicolò Cavalli

Selected Wittgenstein Centre databases on fertility across time and space
Kryštof Zeman, Tomáš Sobotka

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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020
ISSN 1728-4414
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ISSN 1728-5305
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ISBN 978-3-7001-8702-8
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ISBN 978-3-7001-8773-8
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Marriage will (continue to) be the key to the future of fertility in Japan and East Asia

    Setsuya Fukuda

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020, pp. 71-79, 2020/07/22

Fertility across time and space

doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb07


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doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb07

Abstract

In this debate I provide my thoughts on the most important factor likely to influence future fertility trends in Japan, drawing on a wide range of available data. My focus on Japan is also relevant to other East Asian societies that have similar cultural backgrounds and fertility trends shaped by similar socioeconomic developments, namely, South Korea, Taiwan and, to some extent, mainland China. My conclusion is that marriage continues to be the most important proximate determinant of future fertility in Japan and, arguably, in other East Asian societies as well. Marriage itself is being affected by the trends in female tertiary education and the concurrent shift toward dual-earner marriage ideology. However, future fertility trends may not conform to a simple extrapolation of current fertility behaviors. For instance, young adults’ dating behaviors and the pathways to marriage are changing, marriage has become less stable, and marital fertility is declining. These changes may also reshape the link between marriage and fertility trends in the future.

Keywords: Cohabitation; Premarital pregnancy; Marital fertility; Marital instability; Gender; Marriage; Fertility; Japan; East Asia

Published Online: 2020/07/22 13:00:00

Object Identifier: 0xc1aa5572 0x003fa8b6

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Rights: © The Author(s), Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna 2024 This article/book is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) that allows the sharing, use and adaptation in any medium, provided that the user gives appropriate credit, provides a link to the license, and indicates if changes were made.