• Vienna Institute of Demography (Ed.)

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020

Fertility across time and space

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Introduction: the relevance of studying fertility across time and space
Tomáš Sobotka

Debate

International political economy and future fertility trends
Alícia Adserà

Moving out the parental home and partnership formation as social determinants of low fertility
Albert Esteve, Diederik Boertien, Ryohei Mogi and Mariona Lozano

“Catching up with ‘compressed modernity”’ - How the values of Millennials and Gen-Z’ers could reframe gender equity and demographic systems
Stuart Gietel-Basten



Future fertility trends are shaped at the intersection of gender and social stratification
Trude Lappegård



The wish for a child
Anna Rotkirch

Fertility will be determined by the changing ideal family size and the empowerment to reach these targets
Wolfgang Lutz

Marriage will (continue to) be the key to the future of fertility in Japan and East Asia
Setsuya Fukuda

Review Article

Ultra-low fertility in East Asia: Confucianism and its discontents
Yen-hsin Alice Cheng

Research Articles

Laggards in the global fertility transition
David Shapiro, Andrew Hinde

Projecting future births with fertility differentials reflecting women’s educational and migrant characteristics
Michaela Potančoková, Guillaume Marois

Decomposing changes in first birth trends: Quantum, timing, or variance
Ryohei Mogi, Michael Dominic del Mundo

What factors support the early age patterns of fertility in a developing country: the case of Kyrgyzstan
Konstantin Kazenin, Vladimir Kozlov

Marital fertility decline and child mortality in the Sardinian longevity Blue Zone
Michel Poulain, Dany Chambre, Pino Ledda, Anne Herm

Future orientation and fertility: cross-national evidence using Google search
Nicolò Cavalli

Selected Wittgenstein Centre databases on fertility across time and space
Kryštof Zeman, Tomáš Sobotka

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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020
ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
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ISBN 978-3-7001-8702-8
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-8773-8
Online Edition



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Fertility will be determined by the changing ideal family size and the empowerment to reach these targets

    Wolfgang Lutz

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2020, pp. 63-70, 2020/08/04

Fertility across time and space

doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb06


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doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb06

Abstract

The long-term fertility trends in different parts of the world will matter greatly for sustainable development and future human well-being on this planet. The future paths of fertility and the resulting population growth have also been identified as important factors in efforts to deal with climate change and other environmental risks. Future population growth will essentially depend on two factors: the speed of fertility decline in Africa and the long-term fertility level at the end of demographic transition. In this contribution I argue that for both factors, changes in the reproductive preferences are the key drivers. Moreover, these changes primarily happen in our minds, and are only secondarily influenced by changing economic realities and environmental factors. But before we can realize these preferences, we need to be empowered to do so. Reproductive empowerment, driven especially by rising levels of women’s education, is a key factor allowing women and men to act on their fertility preferences, and shaping fertility trends.

Keywords: Fertility; Fertility decline; Demographic transition; Population growth; Reproductive preferences; Reproductive empowerment

Published Online: 2020/08/04

Object Identifier: 0xc1aa5572 0x003fa8cb

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Metrics: https://plu.mx/plum/a/?doi=10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb06

Rights: © The Author(s), Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna 2024 This article/book is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) that allows the sharing, use and adaptation in any medium, provided that the user gives appropriate credit, provides a link to the license, and indicates if changes were made.