• Vienna Institute of Demography (Ed.)

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2009

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Contents:
Introduction
Migration and its consequences in 21st century Europe

Invited Contribution The global economic crisis and international migration: An uncertain outlook

Refereed Articles
The global economic crisis and international migration: An uncertain outlook
Reproductive behaviour of migrant women in Germany: Data, patterns and determinants
Short term reproductive behaviour of foreign women who became mothers between 2002-2006 in Italy
Demographic and economic factors of labour supply: Long-term projections and policy options for France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom
Can the rising pension burden in Europe be mitigated by immigration? Modelling the effects of selected demographic and socio-economic factors on ageing in the European Union, 2008-2050
The impact of a massive migration flow on the regional population structure: The case of Italy
Effects of immigration on population growth and structures in Greece: A spatial approach
The net reproduction rate and the type-reproduction number in multiregional demography


Data and Trends (non-refereed contributions)
Migration continent Europe

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Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2009
ISSN 1728-4414
Print Edition
ISSN 1728-5305
Online Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-6832-4
Print Edition
ISBN 978-3-7001-6859-1
Online Edition



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Demographic and economic factors of labour supply: Long-term projections and policy options for France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom

    Serguey Ivanov

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2009, pp. 83-122, 2000/03/18

doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2009s83


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doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2009s83

Abstract

The paper presents labour supply scenarios in France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom for the years 2025 and 2050. These projections were based on the examination of the dynamics of the major contributing factors to the labour supply (LS), i.e. working-age population (WAP), labour force participation rate (LFPR), employment rate (ER) and labour utilisation (LU; defined as time worked per worker per year). The assumptions underlying the scenarios varied from plausible to ‘best case scenario’ to unrealistic. In France and in the United Kingdom, the demographic factors coupled with continuing immigration at the current levels will shape only a marginal decrease of the size of WAP. By contrast, the size of Germany’s and Italy’s WAP will shrink significantly by 2025 and, barring a tremendous surge in immigration, greatly by mid-century. In order to sustain the supply of labour, Italy has to eliminate unemployment. This assumes the sustainability of such factors as the recent increase in LFPR (especially of women) and relatively large immigration. By contrast, Germany has a large potential for increasing labour utilisation. Unless, however, immigration is increased dramatically, this will not suffice to balance the impact of the WAP decrease on LS. Within varying degrees, governments are able to affect the components of labour supply and capitalise on eventual synergies. The analysis relies on data from the United Nations Population Division, OECD, ILO and the European Union.

Keywords: Labour; Working-Age Population; Labour Force; Participation Rate; Employment Rate